VanEck Report Shows Bitcoin Market Cycles Depend on Dune Releases, Not Halving
A new report published by VanEck analyst Gabor Gurbacs shows that Bitcoin's famous four year market cycles depend on the release of Dune movies as opposed to Bitcoin's block reward halving, as experts previously believed. Evidence published in the report shows a much higher correlation to Bitcoin price than the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model or other Bitcoin halving related memes.
When the original Dune remake was announced in late 2017 the Bitcoin price exploded to its then all time high of nearly $20,000 only to crash all the way down below $4,000 in early 2020 after years of little news or updates about the production of the highly anticipated film. When the first teaser trailers for the movie starring Timothy Chamalet were released in late 2020, Bitcoin surged past its previous all-time-high and saw the price reach over $60,000 before a sharp pullback only to peak at $69,000 a few months later when the film was released to streaming services instead of theaters, due to the Covid-19 scamdemic.
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Frauds, scams, and general state fuckery ensued following Bitcoin's peak in late 2021 causing the price to crash below its 2017 Dune announcement peak but began to recover in 2023 as anticipation for Dune 2 began to build. On March 1, 2024 Dune 2 finally hit theaters across the world causing Bitcoin to surge once again to its high of $69,000.
While the discovery by Gurbacs has been heralded by Bitcoin experts and fanatics as game changing, many are concerned about Bitcoin's future security as Dune currently only has plans to release one more installment in roughly 4 years, with the third Dune expected sometime in 2028. "We could hit $1 million per Bitcoin when Dune 3 comes out" one Bitcoin holder posted on the social media platform X. "But what about after that? If no more Dune movies come out, how will the price keep growing?"
Some Bitcoiners believe they have found a solution. They are crafting a new BIP (Bitcoin improvement proposal). Details of the proposal won't be available until its officially shared on Github but a recent X Spaces hosted by Bitcoin Magazine offers some insights into their plan. One spaces speaker mentioned they are working closely with Disney on a plan to buy the Dune franchise similar to Disney's acquisition of Marvel, Star Wars, and other popular franchises. When Dune 3 is released, Bitcoiners who support the proposal will pool their profits to help Disney buy the franchise. Once Disney owns it, they can release a new, shitty sequel to keep boosting the Bitcoin price.
Not every Bitcoiner was a fan of this idea. "We can't just increase the size of the Dune cinematic universe. People in poor areas will not be able to afford the storage requirements for all those DVDs or MP4s!" one Monetary Maximalist argued. A proponent of the idea offered a rebuttal that in the future, DVD's and DVD towers will become so cheap, everyone will be able to afford them. Other's argued that arbitrarily changing the Dune film issuance schedule means the film is not "decentralized" and would lead to tampering and tinkering which would break the Dune to Bitcoin price correlation. As one small Dune Cinematic Universe advocate put it, "If we just start releasing new Dune movies on whichever schedule we think the market requires, we're no better than the central bankers printing money. You can't print spice (the valuable resource from the Dune series). It's proof of work. And you can't 'print Dune'"
